U.S. Import Prices Rise 5.9%, Export Prices Climb 8.2% YoY in July 2026

U.S. import prices fell 0.4 percent in July and export prices fell 1.3 percent, the second consecutive monthly decline for both indexes. Each was the largest decline of its kind in some time — the import drop is the largest monthly decline since May 2025, the export drop the largest monthly decline since May 2023. On a 12-month basis, though, both indexes are still climbing hard: import prices are up 5.9 percent and export prices 8.2 percent. And underneath a headline that fuel dragged lower, nonfuel import prices accelerated to 4.5 percent over 12 months, the largest over-the-year advance since the index increased 4.6 percent for the year ended June 2022.

Fuel Does the Damage, Nonfuel Keeps Climbing

July's headline decline is almost entirely a fuel story. Import fuel prices fell 7.2 percent, the largest monthly decline since the index fell 7.2 percent in September 2024, after a 3.8-percent decrease in June and a 12.1-percent surge in May. Within the category, lower petroleum prices more than offset higher natural gas prices:

• Import petroleum and petroleum products: fell 7.5 percent
• Import natural gas: advanced 5.3 percent

Over 12 months the fuel complex remains extraordinary:

• Import fuel prices: up 25.2 percent
• Petroleum and petroleum products: up 26.3 percent
• Natural gas: up 74.3 percent

Strip fuel out and the direction reverses. Nonfuel import prices rose 0.4 percent in July, with higher prices for capital goods; foods, feeds, and beverages; and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines more than offsetting lower prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials. Fuel volatility is loud but mean-reverting. A nonfuel index running above 4 percent is the part that transmits to consumer prices.

The July detail beneath nonfuel imports:

• Capital goods: increased 0.9 percent, led by computers, peripherals and semiconductors; industrial and service machinery; and civilian aircraft, engines, and parts
• Foods, feeds, and beverages: advanced 0.9 percent, following decreases of 0.1 percent in June and 0.3 percent in May
• Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines: increased 0.2 percent
• Consumer goods, excluding automotives: were unchanged
• Nonfuel industrial supplies and materials: declined 0.5 percent, after a 0.3-percent increase in June

Exports Post Their Sharpest Decline Since 2023

Prices for U.S. exports decreased 1.3 percent in July following a 0.7-percent decline in June and a 1.2-percent advance in May. Lower nonagricultural prices more than offset higher agricultural prices:

• Nonagricultural exports: declined 1.5 percent, after falling 0.7 percent in June and rising 1.2 percent in May
• Agricultural exports: increased 1.0 percent, after ticking up 0.1 percent in June
• Nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials: decreased 4.1 percent, after declining 2.1 percent the previous month, on lower prices for fuel, nonferrous metals, and chemicals

The single-month drop barely dents the annual picture. Nonagricultural export prices are up 8.5 percent over 12 months and agricultural export prices 5.7 percent, and agricultural export prices have not recorded a 1-month decline since December 2025.

Finished-goods export categories were uniformly higher:

• Capital goods: increased 0.5 percent, following advances of 0.5 percent in June and 0.4 percent in May
• Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines: rose 0.7 percent, the largest 1-month advance since April 2025
• Consumer goods, excluding automotives: increased 0.2 percent

Import Prices From China Post Their Largest Rise Since 2008

The locality data again carries the most striking figure in the release. Import prices from China advanced 0.8 percent in July, the largest monthly increase since the price index rose 0.8 percent in July 2008, and are up 2.7 percent over the past 12 months. After years in which Chinese import prices were a persistent disinflationary force for U.S. consumers, that channel is now pushing the other way.

Other trading partners diverged sharply:

• Canada: import prices fell 2.1 percent, the first 1-month decline for this index since September 2025
• Japan: import prices increased 0.6 percent, after a 0.5-percent decrease in June and a 0.3-percent increase in May
• Mexico: import prices decreased 0.3 percent for the second consecutive month
• European Union: import prices decreased 0.2 percent, following a 0.5-percent decline in June

The export side mirrored none of it. Prices for exports to Canada increased 2.2 percent, the largest monthly advance since the index rose 3.0 percent in March 2022, while export prices to the European Union decreased 1.9 percent and exports to China decreased 0.5 percent — the largest monthly decline for that index since it fell 0.7 percent in December 2025. Prices for exports to Japan increased 0.2 percent and are up 10.4 percent over the past 12 months, the largest over-the-year advance since July 2022.

Terms of trade — the purchasing power of exports relative to imports — moved against the United States where it matters most:

• China: the index decreased 1.3 percent following a 0.5-percent decline in June, as higher import prices from China met lower export prices to China
• European Union: the index decreased 1.6 percent after falling 0.8 percent in June
• Canada: the index increased 4.3 percent
• Mexico: the index rose 0.6 percent
• Japan: the index declined 0.3 percent

Air Fares and Freight Reverse

Transportation services turned after months of steep gains. Import air passenger fares decreased 11.0 percent in July after rising 12.6 percent in June and 11.3 percent in May, as lower European and Asian fares more than offset higher Latin American/Caribbean fares. Even after that drop, import air passenger fares are up 16.9 percent over the past year, the largest 12-month advance since February 2023. Import air freight prices fell 2.2 percent following a 1.4-percent increase in June, and remain 23.4 percent above their year-ago level.

The export side was quieter. Export air passenger fares ticked up 0.1 percent after a 3.5-percent increase the previous month, and are up 2.6 percent from July 2025. Export air freight prices decreased 1.5 percent following a 2.9-percent decline in June, though they remain 12.5 percent above year-ago levels.

What to Watch

One caveat belongs on any chart of this series: some October and November 2025 values are unavailable because of the 2025 lapse in appropriations, leaving a genuine gap in the index history rather than a flat reading.

Last month the number to watch here was nonfuel import prices. They came in at 4.5 percent over 12 months — accelerating while the headline decelerated, which is exactly the divergence that matters. Fuel's 25.2-percent annual gain will keep fading mechanically as the 2025 base rolls forward, dragging the headline lower regardless of what underlying prices do. Nonfuel will not.

The August release is scheduled for Wednesday, September 16, 2026. The number to watch is again the nonfuel import index. Another advance on the order of July's 0.4 percent would lift its annual rate further even as the headline keeps falling — and at that point the pass-through to consumer goods prices stops being a forecast and starts being a trend.